Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 5th The situation has stabilized and "headed east" — — Prospect of the Middle East situation in 2023
Xinhua News Agency reporter Xin Jianqiang
In 2023, the momentum of "overall relaxation and local shock" in the Middle East may continue. Although there are variables in the relations between countries in the region, it is expected to continue to develop well. At the same time, western powers will step up their influence on the Middle East and accelerate the pace of adjusting their policies in the Middle East.
As the regional political ecology continues to change and China-Arab relations continue to heat up, the pace of Middle East countries from "looking east" to "heading east" will accelerate.
Intra-domain relations continue to improve.
In recent years, internal relations among Arab countries, relations between Arab countries and Turkey and Iran, relations between Sunnis and Shiites, and relations between "pro-Muslim Brotherhood camp" and "anti-Muslim Brotherhood camp" have all eased to varying degrees. The "crisis of Qatar breaking off diplomatic relations" caused by internal differences among Arab countries has come to an end. Four Arab countries, namely, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, have successively normalized their relations with Israel, and the relations between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran have obviously eased. In particular, Saudi Arabia and Iran have held several rounds of dialogues to seek to improve their relations. Kuwait has restored its relations with Iran to the ambassadorial level.
Tang Zhichao, a scholar at west asia and africa Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the rise of the detente atmosphere in the Middle East is largely the result of countries in the region actively shaping their agendas, which is more endogenous and more sustainable than the "fragile peace" led by western powers in the past.
In 2023, there is great hope for the Middle East countries to maintain the momentum of peace and stability, but there are also many hidden concerns. Whether Turkey will stop carrying out cross-border attacks on Syria, whether the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will intensify after the Israeli right-wing government led by Netanyahu takes office, when Syria will return to the "Arab family", and whether a breakthrough can be made in resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement will have a greater impact on the situation in the Middle East.
Great powers step up their struggle for the Middle East.
Wang Lincong, deputy director of west asia and africa Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that under the background of increasingly fierce strategic competition among big countries, big countries outside the region are accelerating the pace of policy adjustment in the Middle East to cope with their global strategies. The United States, Europe, Russia, India and other countries are paying more attention to the Middle East.
Wang Lincong pointed out that at this stage, the focus of the great power competition strategy pursued by the United States is in Asia-Pacific and Europe. However, after the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States reassessed the strategic value of the Middle East and increased its layout in the Middle East. Alieddin Helal, a professor of political science at Cairo University, believes that in 2023, the US Middle East policy will focus on three aspects: First, it will curb Russia and China from expanding their influence in the Middle East; Second, continue to strengthen strategic partnership with traditional allies in the Middle East; The third is to continue to contain Iran and make the Iranian regime more fragile.
After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia also made efforts to achieve a breakthrough in the Middle East. Wang Lincong believes that Russia’s focus in the Middle East is to strengthen relations with Iran and Turkey and mobilize positive forces to break the US blockade. In addition, Russia also uses the "OPEC+"mechanism to strengthen its influence in the energy field to balance the United States. For European countries, due to the shortage of energy supply caused by the Ukrainian crisis, they especially hope to strengthen energy cooperation with oil-producing countries in the Middle East.
Wang Lincong pointed out that the game situation of these extraterritorial powers in the Middle East is gradually shifting from controlling the Middle East to fighting for Middle East countries to safeguard their own interests in the Middle East. The Middle East will become a hot spot for a new round of competition among foreign powers, but it is not the focus area.
"Eastbound" is bound to accelerate.
In 2023, the pace of Middle East countries from "looking east" to "heading east" will continue to accelerate.
Tian Wenlin, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, believes that the political ecology in the Middle East is undergoing profound changes under the background of unprecedented changes in the past century, and the deepening cooperation between Arab countries and China is facing historic opportunities.
In recent years, China-Arab relations have continued to heat up. From December 7 to 10, 2022, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader attended the first China-Arab Summit, the China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit and paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia. This is China’s largest and highest-standard diplomatic action towards the Arab world since the founding of New China, and it has become an epoch-making milestone in the history of China-Arab relations.
Tian Wenlin pointed out that the Middle East policy of the United States and other western powers is far more destructive than constructive, and China hopes that the Arab world will be United and strong, and its position of "not seeking spheres of influence, not cultivating agents, and not filling the power vacuum" has won praise and recognition from Arab countries. China has always upheld justice in Middle East affairs and established its own policies and positions according to the merits of the affairs themselves.
Experts pointed out that China has carried out genuine and sincere unity and cooperation, bringing together developing countries for self-improvement, and the attraction of the proposed China Plan and China Initiative in the Middle East is increasing. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative meets the real needs of Middle Eastern countries to pay more attention to economic development and improvement of people’s livelihood, and has effectively docked with the development strategies of these countries. It can be predicted that in the new year, the relations between Middle East countries and China will be further upgraded.