Control the initiative to win future wars
■ Zeng Haiqing
Quote
With the rapid development of emerging technologies and their wide application in the military field, the form of war is accelerating. To win the future war, we should not only look far, but also be meticulous, understand the pulse of the evolution of quasi-war forms, the battles that may be fought in the future, and understand the new winning mechanism, so as to make targeted preparations for military struggle and effectively control the initiative to win the future war.
Deeply grasp the connotation and characteristics of future war
The future war is an information-based war with intelligent characteristics and a joint operation at an advanced stage. Its characteristics are embodied in the following four "highs":
The application of high technology changes the winning mechanism. The long-range precision, intelligence, stealth and unmanned development of weapons and equipment promote the evolution of war to a higher level of confrontation. It is highlighted in three aspects: First, it is invincible. Powerful data, algorithms, and computing power provide feasible conditions for the realization of superb calculations, detailed calculations, and multi-calculations. From the overall decision-making in strategic campaigns to the tactical calculations, we must occupy the advantage of "calculation" and accumulate the odds of winning every step, so as to increase the probability of defeating opponents. Second, it is invincible. In the future, the combat units are characterized by small, scattered and flexible, with large scale, scattered deployment, multi-domain forces, multiple modules and multiple combinations, which are connected into an autonomous integrated combat system to realize the emergence of structural functions and exponential growth of operational efficiency. Third, it is invincible. The extension of high-tech to the end elements of the military system brings not only faster information transmission and action, but also faster decision-making and faster system operation. Once the enemy is one step behind, it is likely to fall into the danger of "OODA" ring being locked.
High frontier competition pushes up security threats. In the future war, the national frontier is no longer simply defined by geographical frontier, but also exists in the public domain and common domain such as network, space, deep sea, polar region and subversive science and technology. In order to occupy the leading position in the high frontier, the following four directions must be paid attention to: First, high hidden destruction. Cyber attacks "come and go without a trace", high stealth weapon platforms "come and go freely", and hidden tricks in the cognitive domain "subtly", which makes opponents invisible, unclear and unpredictable. The second is high-energy destruction. High-energy weapons have long duration of combat, fast fire transfer speed and short interval of fire interruption, subverting the traditional concept of fire attack, and can be carried to land-based, sea-based, space-based and space-based multidimensional platforms, and the opponent’s defense is facing great difficulties. The third is the intellectual attack. The intelligent unmanned cluster combat force, with strong penetration ability, strong survivability and strong battlefield recovery ability, has become an important force in the future war. The fourth is high-speed strike. The speed of air and space planes and other strike weapons has exceeded Mach 20, and the global rapid strike system of some countries can strike any target in the world quickly and accurately within one hour, which greatly shortens the opponent’s reaction time, and the traditional defense system is in danger of failure.
High-level opponents are even more important. If you are familiar with what you have done, you will be successful. At present, countries all over the world have stepped up their efforts to innovate military theories and seek strategic advantages and initiative in future wars, which are highlighted in four competitions: First, they are more forward-looking. See who studies the next war more clearly and thoroughly, can predict the future operational environment, develop new operational styles, and design the construction and application of military forces in advance. The second is better than execution. See who can transform, absorb, refine and sublimate more instructive operational ideas, and run through them to better guide military practice. The third is technology. See who has stronger technical perception, understanding and application, can continuously improve equipment performance, innovate tactics and tactics, and promote the innovation and development of operational theory. The fourth is more independent. Seeing who has more "unique hidden weapons" and "trump card" can form a unique theoretical advantage and give opponents asymmetric checks and balances.
High-intensity game drives global confrontation. The future war confrontation game will be high-intensity and generally has three characteristics: First, it is global. The war will involve land, sea, air, space, network, electromagnetism and psychological cognition, and the combat system will be vertically integrated and horizontally integrated, and the global mobile integrated operation will become the basic style. The second is integrity. Focusing on strategic objectives, military actions are closely coordinated with political, economic and diplomatic struggles, and attention is paid to building an integrated national strategic system and capabilities. The third is persistence. Especially in the game between big countries, neither side can destroy or change the other’s will in a short time, and the big country war finally reflects the contest of comprehensive national strength.
Scientifically calibrate the basic ability to win future wars.
From the analysis of the inherent requirements of joint operations under the background of intelligence, we should have four basic abilities to win future wars.
Strategic planning ability based on the overall situation of the times. Those who are good at fighting seek the situation. In designing future wars, we should profoundly grasp the general trend and plan in the process of adapting to changes. First of all, be good at understanding the overall situation. We must be able to accurately judge our enemies and friends based on the current situation, plan the development of military modernization around the ultimate goal, strategic goal and stage goal layout, and also be able to see the essence through the phenomenon and the depth through the appearance, and play an all-round game with strong enemies around the red line, bottom line and sideline, and always maintain strategic sobriety and determination. Secondly, we should be good at forward-looking judgment. It is necessary to be able to predict national security risks, war threats and strategic opponents, to prevent the risk of strategic misleading and process interruption, and to be able to keenly detect the direction of scientific and technological surprise attack and sudden change of mechanism, and to accelerate the generation of new combat capabilities before opponents. Third, be good at using technology. To improve the sensitivity of science and technology, we can seize the mast top when it is just exposed, lay out and develop key technologies, core technologies and cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and truly transform science and technology into combat effectiveness.
Operational planning ability based on intelligent technology. In the future war, rapid planning and decision-making has become the key point to improve operational efficiency. It is necessary to further promote the application of intelligent technology in operational planning and strive to improve the level of "three modernizations". The first is to analyze and judge the data. By means of data mining, intelligent identification, decision-making assistance, etc., the massive information is removed from the rough and refined, the false and the true are removed, the interference of subjective misjudgment is reduced, and the situation is objectively and comprehensively presented, so as to make judgments based on data analysis and improve the accuracy of planning and decision-making. The second is the intelligence of planning operations. Advanced technologies such as machine learning, deep learning, and brain-like intelligence are deeply embedded in the whole process of case study, case preparation, case performance, and case revision. According to the operational objectives, power grouping, action path, and operational process are intelligently designed, and multiple sets of schemes are provided. Through computer simulation and deduction, decision-making suggestions are provided for commanders, which greatly improves the scientific timeliness of operational planning. The third is the regularization of human-computer interaction. Adhere to "people in the loop", highlight the dominant position of commanders in the "OODA" loop, scientifically formulate the rules of human-computer interaction, restrict the autonomous scope of intelligent systems, and realize the deep integration of command art and machine intelligence.
Command and control ability based on fast convergence. In the future war, neither side of the confrontation has the absolute advantage of global full-time. The key is to see who can get ahead of others and release energy immediately and accurately, and change the relationship between the strengths and weaknesses in a specific time and space. To this end, it is necessary to keenly capture fighters, grasp the battlefield situation in real time, accurately understand the battlefield situation, systematically analyze the opponent’s battle center, core hub and key nodes, dynamically evaluate the strength advantage difference, judge the situation evolution map, organically integrate command art and intelligent technology, and effectively grasp the advantage window. It is necessary to make immediate action decisions, adapt to the rapid changes in the battlefield, firmly grasp the advantage window, quickly determine the target of attack according to the situation of the enemy and the enemy and the actual situation of the battlefield, aggregate multi-domain superior forces, flexibly implement operational grouping, scientifically plan the task system of operational actions, and realize the immediate decision-making of accurate energy release actions. Cross-domain collaborative control should be carried out, and the interactive collaboration mode and operational control relationship of combat units in each domain should be adjusted in real time, and the force grouping should be flexibly adjusted and optimized, and the collaborative rules should be quickly distributed and updated to realize multi-directional and multi-dimensional accurate energy release across domains, media and environments. It is necessary to connect the system at all times and build a multi-level information security system covering all fields, which can sense the network damage in real time, restore the network communication immediately, provide safe, smooth and uninterrupted guarantee, and effectively support the efficient operation of the joint combat system.
System capabilities based on global integration. The future war is an all-field, all-system, all-factor, all-process system confrontation, which requires a system capabilities with global integration. The first is multi-source shaped charge reconnaissance. Adhere to global reconnaissance, joint early warning and collaborative verification, and build a large-scale joint reconnaissance intelligence system with multidimensional integration, global coverage, highlighting key points and deep integration of intelligence information. The second is wide-area joint deterrence. It has the strength to continuously repel opponents in space, cyberspace, deep sea and polar regions. The third is cross-domain joint action. Improve the level of field deployment, strengthen the ability of communication between mobile and China, promote the construction of modularization and standardization, realize the dynamic deployment of combat forces, and improve the ability of command coordination and cross-domain delivery. The fourth is independent and precise killing. Establish a fire network with flexibility, dynamic matching, independent cooperation and multi-layer connection, seize the weak points of opponents, and focus on customizing and building a multi-domain killing chain. The fifth is comprehensive and integrated guarantee. Effectively respond to the support needs of various fields, intelligently plan support resources, improve the strategic reserve layout of combat materials, expand the preset reserve outlets of campaigns, and enhance the long-term self-support ability of tactical combat units. The sixth is to quickly mobilize support. Adapt to the requirements of sudden and fast-paced war, improve the demand response mechanism, quickly aggregate resources and strengths of all parties, and quickly turn the war potential into realistic combat effectiveness.
Actively prepare for winning future wars.
Focus on building a combat theory system that will lead the future war. Focusing on the modernization of military theory and taking the military strategic policy of the new era as the guide, we will speed up the construction of an operational theoretical system that can lead future war preparations. Focus on strong enemies, stick to the core mission, aim at future wars, and develop operational concepts and supporting concepts in all fields and directions. With the operational concept as the core, the operational theory is systematically developed, so that the abstract operational concept can be turned into concrete operational guidance, which can be understood and accepted by the troops, and then the practical innovation in joint operational command, operational capability requirements, joint operational training, joint operational support and joint operational tactics can be promoted.
Focus on building a new quality power system that is strong and faces war directly. New combat strength is an important growth point of combat effectiveness, so it is necessary to strengthen systematic planning, play a good first move and take the initiative. We should not only keep a close eye on the frontier direction, but also keep a close eye on the direction of surprise attack, develop new weapons, and form operational capabilities through organizational systems. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen capacity building in emerging fields and strive to seize the initiative in military competition.
Focus on building an intelligent network information system to support future wars. Adhere to forward-looking layout, iterative promotion and integrated development, and constantly improve the level of "network information+intelligence". It is necessary to optimize the system functions, build a "combat cloud" with real-time online response, and integrate multi-functional modules such as battlefield situation awareness, command and decision-making, action control, and operational support. It is necessary to promote resource sharing, establish an information grid network that integrates military and civilian, heaven and earth, and multi-domain, strengthen the development and application of mobile communication systems, and improve the ability of mobile communication, broadband communication and reliable communication. It is necessary to highlight independent innovation, strengthen research and development of core technologies and products, and accelerate the transformation and application of technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and quantum information in the military field.
Strive to improve the joint training system for previewing future wars. In accordance with the strategic requirements of building a new military training system, we should strengthen systematic training, confrontational training and forward-looking training. In terms of training guidance, we should focus on strategic planning, operational planning, command and control, and operational collaborative training around the basic capabilities needed to win future wars, and establish a "wind vane" for leading training by war and grasping training by war. In terms of training content, we should accurately grasp the winning mechanism of future wars, focus on operational planning, command and control, joint tactics, and command and confrontation, and establish a multi-level connection, multi-domain coverage and complete training content system. In the training mode, we should follow the requirements of the future war, and adhere to the integrated command of precise control in the whole process of sub-domain, cross-domain coordination in multi-domain segmentation and global integration. In terms of training support, we should use intelligent simulation technology to vigorously strengthen simulation training and virtual confrontation training based on combat scenes and strong enemies, and carry out rehearsal practice in the war background as realistically as possible.
(Author: Central Theater)
