The picture shows Iguazu Falls in Brazil Source: Profile picture.
On February 8th, PricewaterhouseCoopers published a report entitled "The World in 2050: How to Change the Global Economic Order". The report predicts that by 2050, the global economic center of gravity will shift from G7 to E7, and emerging economies will become the engines of global economic development.
In this regard, this newspaper contacted John Hawkesworth, the chief contributor of the report and chief economist of PricewaterhouseCoopers. He said that emerging economies will dominate in the 21st century. It is predicted that by 2050, China will be the largest economy in the world.
(G7: refers to the seven major industrial countries, including the United States, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Canada)
(E7: Seven emerging economies, including China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey)
Emerging economies are optimistic
According to the British "Financial Times" report, emerging economies and developed countries in the post-crisis era began to transform their strength in the global economy. At present, developed countries still have an advantage in economic volume, but they have begun to make a turning point in incremental contribution.
"In the nine years since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, it is not the West that has made the greatest contribution to the world economy. Emerging economies and developing countries, including BRICS countries, contribute more than 80% to the world economy, while western countries contribute less than 20%. " He Maochun, director of Tsinghua University Economic and Diplomatic Research Center, said in an interview with this newspaper.
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the economic situation in developed countries is not as good as before. The British "Financial Times" said that Professor Hall of Stanford University in the United States published an article on "Long-term Weakness", indicating that the economic prospects of the United States are not optimistic. According to the report "The World in 2050: How the Global Economic Order Changes" by PricewaterhouseCoopers, by 2050, the share of 27 EU countries in global GDP may fall below 10%.
Some international economic organizations are generally optimistic about emerging economies. In January, the World Economic Outlook report showed that economic activity in 2017-2018 is expected to accelerate after the downturn in 2016. Among them, the main reason for the enhanced global economic prospects is the acceleration of growth expectations in emerging economies.
Jim O ‘Neill, the "father of BRICS", said in an interview with the BBC that "the world economy has undergone tremendous changes, and emerging economies have played a more important role in international affairs (especially economic affairs). The performance of the BRICS countries now exceeds the original expectations, and this is mainly because of China. "
China is regarded as a leader in the development of emerging economies. He Maochun said, "Since the international financial crisis, China has contributed 30% to the world economy. Judging from the speed of economic development and the average value of the world economy, China is the biggest contributor to the global economic recovery. " The World Economic Outlook report in January predicted that China, the world’s second largest economy, would increase its GDP growth rate by 0.3 percentage points to 6.5% in 2017.
There are many reasons for the transformation of strength
Since the financial crisis, structural contradictions in the economies of developed countries have become prominent. Jiang Ruiping, director of the Department of International Economics of the School of Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with this newspaper, "After the financial crisis in 2008, some structural problems in developed countries broke out. Since 2009, the economies of these countries have begun to experience overall negative growth, and European countries have fallen into a sovereign debt crisis, resulting in a vicious circle of financial crisis and financial crisis. "
"Emerging economies have seized the opportunity of a new round of globalization and have effectively integrated into the process of economic globalization. Among them, China is more representative. " Jiang Rui ping said.
Emerging economies have broad advantages in attracting corporate investment. John Hawkesworth said that the development of emerging economies will create many business opportunities for enterprises. PricewaterhouseCoopers’ World in 2050: How the Global Economic Order Changed’ reports that emerging economies are more attractive, and they have significantly improved their environmental conditions in the past decade, becoming more and more areas worth investing in.
Gideon Rahman discussed the basis for the transformation of economic strength between emerging economies and developed countries from the perspective of population. He wrote in the Financial Times that an important reason for the transfer of economic power lies in population. By 2025, about two-thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia. In contrast, the United States will account for about 5% of the world’s population and the European Union will account for about 7%.
Emerging economies have great room for economic development. He Maochun said, "Developing countries have more advantages in infrastructure construction, manufacturing industry, logistics industry, social public service construction and service trade. Emerging countries will have fewer difficulties and more impetus for economic growth. It can be predicted that in the next five to ten years, emerging countries will still be in a period of rapid growth. "
The economic pattern has changed significantly.
While developed countries introduced trade protection policies, emerging economies began to strengthen cooperation and "warm up". According to Sputnik’s report on February 8th, in recent years, some Latin American economies have shown greater economic and political independence, greatly reducing their dependence on developed countries. After the international financial crisis in 2008, Mexico tried to seize the opportunity to diversify its economy by developing relations with China and others.
Emerging economies actively seek their position and voice in the global economy. According to the British "Financial Times" report, in 2010, the International Monetary Fund began to implement share adjustment to increase the share and voting rights of emerging economies such as China and India; In 2016, RMB successfully joined the SDR basket; The expansion of G7 into G20 and China’s successful hosting of the G20 Hangzhou Summit in 2016 all indicate that the right to speak of emerging economies and developing countries has been improved.
In addition, new forms of cooperation created by emerging economies, such as the AIIB, the BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative, have made a useful supplement to the global economic governance system. Together with the original mechanism, these will promote the development of globalization, become an important force to promote trade liberalization, investment facilitation and regional integration, and gradually affect the global economic structure, He Maochun said.
Of course, emerging economies still face challenges in boosting global economic development. In this regard, John Hawkesworth said that in the face of political shocks like Brexit and Trump’s coming to power, governments all over the world need stronger leadership to resist trade protectionism and maintain impetus on some long-term issues such as climate change and global poverty reduction.
It must be noted that the global economic development is fast and slow, but it is moving forward on the whole. He Maochun said, "In the past, the monopoly of western countries on the global economy made their own economy bear too much burden and neglected the positive force of domestic economic growth. They are also adjusting, and the world will enter a period of reform and adjustment. In the future, China will be the biggest locomotive of the world economy. China’s economy has maintained a new normal, and it is the mainstay of emerging economies. The development of the world economy is increasingly inseparable from the support of China’s economy. "