标签： 2021魔都新茶论坛

　　BEIJING, Nov. 15 (Xinhua) According to the latest weather forecast, affected by strong cold air, there will be a large-scale gale cooling and rain and snow weather process from north to south in China from 16th to 18th. The temperature will drop by 8 ~ 10℃ in most parts of the central and eastern regions, and the temperature will drop by more than 12℃ in some areas. There are 4 ~ 6 northerly winds in most areas north of the Yangtze River, and the gusts can reach 7 ~ 8.

　　Cold air has caused temperatures in Northeast China and North China to hit a new low in winter.

　　In November, several rounds of cold air continuously pulled many places in China from late autumn to early winter from north to south, and some areas ushered in the first snowfall or "coldest day" in the second half of the year.

　　Taking the 14th as an example, the temperatures in Northeast China, North China, Huanghuai and other places dropped significantly, with most areas in Northeast China and North China spending the coldest day since this winter.

　　According to the weather forecast, the highest temperature in the north-central part of Northeast China and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia fell below freezing point on 14th, while the lowest temperature dropped below minus 10℃. For Harbin, Changchun and many other places, it is the first time this winter to experience that the temperature is below 0℃ all day, and the highest temperatures in Beijing and Tianjin will also hit a new low this winter. It is estimated that by the 15th, Beijing, Shijiazhuang and other places in North China are expected to refresh the lowest temperature since the second half of this year.

　　Sun Jun, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said that the cold air currently affecting the central and eastern regions began to affect China on the 13th, and the impact period was mainly concentrated on the 13th and 14th.

　　"The current round of cold air has a small influence range and weak intensity, mainly affecting northeast China, North China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai areas. The cooling range reaches 4 C-6 C, and the local area exceeds 8 C. At the same time, the above areas are accompanied by 4-5 northerly winds." Sun Jun said.

　　According to reports, as far as the cooling situation is concerned, in this round of cooling, the cooling rate in Hebei is relatively large. Among them, from 8: 00 on the 13th to 8: 00 on the 14th, the temperature drop in mountainous areas in western Hebei, such as Zanhuang, Lincheng and Neiqiu, reached more than 10℃. During the daytime on the 14th, the temperature in the eastern part of Northeast China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai areas will be lower than that on the 13th. At present, the front of this cold air has reached the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but it will not continue to affect Jiangnan and South China southward.

　　A new round of strong air conditioning has cooled down locally in the middle and east of the road or exceeded 12℃

　　However, when people in Northeast China and North China are discussing the new low temperature, a new round of strong cold air with larger scope and wider influence is already on the way.

　　According to the forecast, starting from the night of 16th, a new round of strong cold air from the Mongolian Plateau will enter China, Inner Mongolia and northern Xinjiang, and will affect most of the central and eastern regions from north to south. Affected by this, there will be a large-scale gale cooling and rain and snow weather process from north to south in China from 16th to 18th.

　　According to meteorologists, the intensity of this round of cold air is stronger than that of the cold air from 13th to 15th, and its influence is wider, which will have a more obvious impact on the cooling in the southern region. In addition, the impact of this round of cold air process is mainly caused by strong winds.

　　According to the forecast, due to the influence of this round of strong cold air in the future, the temperature in most parts of the central and eastern regions will drop by 8 ~ 10℃, and the temperature in some areas will drop by more than 12℃, and the ground minimum temperature line of 0℃ will be pressed southward to the area along the Huaihe River in the early morning of the 19th. There are 4 ~ 6 northerly winds in most areas north of the Yangtze River, with gusts of 7 ~ 8, and 7 ~ 9 winds in the eastern and southern seas.

　　In terms of precipitation, there will be small to medium snow or sleet in most parts of eastern Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, heavy snow in eastern Jilin, small to moderate rain in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, eastern Southwest China and South China, and heavy rain in parts of Jiangnan. In addition, from 16th to 17th, there was little to medium snow or sleet and local heavy snow along Tianshan Mountains in northern Xinjiang.

　　"This round of cold air process has the characteristics of fast moving speed, wide influence range and large cooling range. Cold air entered Inner Mongolia from the night of 16th to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River on the night of 17th. On the night of 18th, cold air will continue to move southward and reach the South China Sea. It can be said that in just two days, it swept across most areas in central and eastern China from north to south. " Sun Jun introduced.

　　Regarding the impact of cold air on agriculture, Sun Jun introduced that around the 19th, early frost will appear in parts of the western and southern parts of Huanghuai, Jianghuai and other places, and the windy and cool rain and snow weather is not conducive to facility agriculture and animal husbandry production, late sowing of winter wheat and the growth of open-field vegetables. For the southern region, the rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River from 17th to 18th is slightly unfavorable to the drying of autumn harvest crops such as late rice, fruit harvesting and the robust growth of autumn sowing crops, but it is beneficial to increase the storage capacity of reservoirs and ponds.

　　Why is cold air so frequent when winter comes too late?

　　Recently, the cold air affecting China has been coming one after another. The temperature in many places from north to south has dropped rapidly in a short period of time, and many netizens lamented on social networks that "winter came off guard".

　　For the frequent cold air attack, Sun Jun analyzed that the fundamental reason for the frequent cold air process in China in autumn and winter is the difference in thermal properties between land and sea.

　　"In autumn and winter, the land will form a strong high pressure, and the ocean will form a low pressure. The horizontal pressure gradient force will make the atmosphere move from a place with high pressure to a place with low pressure. From the perspective of climate system, the reason why cold air frequently moves south in autumn and winter is that the subtropical system and tropical system move south, the warm and humid airflow moves south, and the ground cold high pressure tends to be active in the middle and high latitudes, so the northwest airflow guides the cold air mass to move south. " Sun Jun said.

　　In the recent "Direct Weather — — In the program "Talking to Scientists", Wang Yongguang, the chief climate expert of the National Climate Center, predicted this winter’s climate, and said that from the previous data forecasting model and diagnostic analysis, China may still be warmer this winter, "the impact of warmer air quality can not be ignored, including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Yangtze River Delta region, and it is still necessary to strengthen prevention".

　　As to how to define "cold winter" and "warm winter", Ding Yihui, academician of China Academy of Engineering and special adviser on climate change of China Meteorological Bureau, explained that the climate change can be described by two parameters, one is the average temperature, and the average temperature of a winter for 90 days exceeds the average for many years, which is warm winter, and the other is cold winter, which is the problem of average. Another parameter is extreme events, such as sudden and violent cooling in a few days in a winter and cold wave weather.

　　"If the average is a warm winter, it does not mean that there will be strong cold events and warm events under this warm winter." Ding Yihui said.

"The entry of flag rugby into the Olympics is progressing smoothly, and we also hope to help China rugby lay out in advance and catch up." Jia Hengxuan, the media director of nfl (Major League Football) in China, made a big discovery when interviewed by Jiefang Daily and Shangguan News recently.

　 　On the same day, Jia Hengxuan was invited to attend the Shanghai City Amateur Football League Finals and the East China Finals of the nfl Waist Flag Rugby Competition held in Xuhui District-this is the fourth year that the nfl and this Shanghai mass sports brand event have become attached to each other, and the two sides have jointly promoted and witnessed the "warming up" of rugby in Shanghai year by year.

It is no coincidence to reveal the inside information of "Waist Flag Rugby Entering the Olympics" on such an occasion. "The development of Shanghai Rugby is ahead of the whole country, and it is very suitable as a new starting point for China Rugby to impact the Olympic Games." Jia Hengxuan said.

"Flag at the waist for the Olympics" has been settled.

　 　 As early as last year, a news related to rugby aroused widespread concern in China’s sports world-the World Games held in July 2022 announced that it would cooperate with nfl to establish flag football as a new World Games event. At that time, the most talked about was the possibility of flag football entering the Olympics. After all, in the past 40 years, many sports have finally reached the Olympic stage through the World Games.

　 　Today, the nfl’s news confirms everything. "The International Football Federation is working hard to promote the establishment of the flag football project in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games. The nfl is fully supporting them. Although the Olympic addition is a huge project, for now, everything is going well." Jia Hengxuan said.

Caption: Jia Hengxuan (right) is giving awards to athletes.

　 　In fact, we have every reason to believe in the determination of Americans to promote flag football into the Olympics. American football has a very high popularity in North America, and the nfl is the most valuable professional sports league in the world, with the highest ratings for many years. For Americans, it is certainly the first choice to push American football into the Olympics, but it is almost impossible.

　 　When considering whether a project can enter the Olympic Games, the International Olympic Committee has to weigh many factors. "Host intention" is a well-known one, but it can’t be the only consideration. In overseas markets, the audience and influence of American football can’t be compared with its position in North America, and its popularity and development level can’t reach the Olympic threshold. The reason is that the high-intensity confrontation and expensive equipment of football have become one of the reasons why many regions are discouraged from it.

　 　 In this way, the flag football, which is in the same strain as American football, has become one of the main events of the Los Angeles Olympic Games-as a non-contact, zero-equipped, small-space football competition form, the flag football has no requirements for the number, age and physical quality of participants, even if it has no sports foundation, it can quickly integrate into the team, and can realize mixed teams of men and women and compete in the same field. The biggest feature of flag football is to cultivate young people’s team spirit and leadership. Rugby requires a lot of team communication and cooperation. Through sports, teenagers can be guided to respect each other, and their self-confidence, courage and perseverance can be enhanced. Therefore, since the birth of flag football, it has quickly captured many fans around the world, and has huge participants in dozens of countries around the world.

Neighbors have taken the lead.

　 　2028 seems far away, but many "neighbors" in Asia have taken action early, and Japan is very representative.

　 　From 1998 to now, flag football has changed from an unknown sport in Japan to a popular sport on Japanese campuses. The data shows that more than one-third of primary schools (6,700 schools) in Japan have carried out flag football. Especially since 2011, flag football has been raised to the level of learning guidance for students in grades 3, 4, 5 and 6 in Japan. Since the flag football was declared to be the event of the World Games, Japan has taken precautions to promote its talent reserve and selection in its own country from the perspective of Olympic strategy.

　 In addition to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and other Asian countries also have good strength in flag football. As an early area to carry out flag football, these countries often win gold and silver in flag football games. I believe that once the project is successful in entering the Olympics, they will gain the first-Mover advantage. Therefore, if China Rugby wants to make a difference in this project, it is urgent.

Shanghai has the best rugby soil.

　 　 A good opportunity, a suitable soil, the seeds of love will have the opportunity to become a forest. Jia Hengxuan said that the nfl thinks that Shanghai can become this "starting point" because it has the best rugby soil in the country.

　 　 Patrick, an American who has been a rugby coach in China for six years, said frankly, "There is almost no gap between China players and American players." He once led a team to compete with nfl players in Major League Football. He thinks that China is almost the same as American players in terms of personal ability and potential ability, and the only difference is the growth environment, that is, "the soil of football".

　 　 Wang Datong can be said to be one of the earliest people to promote American football in Shanghai. He started to contact football at the age of 12, played high school football league in Hawaii, and was still an avid fan of the sport when he was studying at the University of Illinois. Since 2013, he has served as a player and coach in a well-known amateur football club in Shanghai. He told reporters that because American football is a non-Olympic event, there is little top-down support. The main development form of this project in China is the grassroots rugby club, which is organized spontaneously by rugby fans. Shanghai is the most representative American football town. There are not only many clubs, but also a set of scientific management models, which regularly organize training and competitions.

　 　 There are many "signs" that can prove this soil. In terms of participation, the number of domestic teams participating in organized amateur adult equipment leagues increased from 8 in 2014 to 64 in 2019, and the number of Shanghai teams accounted for one third of them; Many campuses in Shanghai have introduced rugby projects one after another, and there are countless non-governmental training institutions. As early as 2018, data showed that more than 8,000 primary school students in Shanghai were trained in rugby courses at least once a week. In the Super Bowl every year, nearly 10 million China viewers watch the live broadcast of the event on TV and new media platforms, among which Shanghai fans account for the majority.

　 　 The year-round folk games have become the core of revitalizing this football hotspot. In the past two years, the rugby amateur league, which was created by Shanghai Rugby Association (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Rugby Association"), has its sub-events and events including: American Rugby Amateur League, Waist Flag Rugby Amateur League, Rugby Amateur League, Touch Rugby League, Junior Rugby League, Magnolia Bowl American Rugby Championship, Shanghai Rugby Ten-a-side Championship, and Ambassador Bowl International Rugby Invitational Tournament …

　 　 In recent years, the competition system and stage of Shanghai rugby have been further enhanced and enlarged. Shanghai sports management department brought rugby into the city amateur league, and the government set up a platform to promote and popularize rugby with high-quality resources. As the main body of the competition, the "Football Association" attracted the nfl, the top professional sports league, to participate actively with the authoritative and professional style of running the competition. It can be said that many parties worked together to breed "soil" together.

　 　 Take Xuhui District as an example. In the past two years, the rugby atmosphere has been rich. First, with the help of the "East Wind" of the city amateur league, the sport itself is very compatible with the regional style. "As a city with a high degree of internationalization, rugby matches the regional characteristics very well and won the love of the people. At present, there are a large number of white-collar workers and teenagers participating in the district, and they need more rugby amateur events suitable for participation. " Zhang Ying, director of the Sports Bureau of Xuhui District, said that the Shanghai Urban Amateur Football League Finals has become an annual "sports festival" in Xuhui District, which is not only a platform for promoting rugby among the people, but also a stage for improving the level of domestic amateur rugby fans.

Is it feasible to form a national team through social training?　

　 　"On the development of flag football, Shanghai has always been a leader in China." The nfl’s judgment is convincing, because since 2003, the nfl has started to hold training camps for flag football coaches and referees in China; In 2008, nfl began to organize university flag football league in Beishangguang, with nearly 40 universities including Tsinghua, Fudan and Guangzhou University participating. In 2015, the nfl held a flag football tournament in China, covering primary schools, junior high schools, senior high schools, universities and public groups, achieving full age coverage.

In the nfl’s view, the biggest difference between football and other sports is the tacit understanding and team cohesion between players, which is the upper limit of the strength of a football team, not the talent of a few players. "We have reached a consensus with the Shanghai Football Association and hope to try to tap football talents through social training." Ding Ye, Secretary-General of Shanghai Rugby Association, revealed that the two sides are already planning to set up a rugby training base in Shanghai. "Our vision is to make full use of Shanghai’s unique rugby soil, select good young people who are talented and enthusiastic about rugby, and after a long period of training and running-in, continue to participate in high-quality competitions, and even go abroad to receive higher-level guidance and learn from international excellent teams, and finally build a truly competitive elite team of flag rugby.

　 　Ding Ye said frankly that the "software equipment" to realize these ideas is relatively mature at present-based on the successful cooperation between Shanghai Football Association and nfl for many years, the latter is willing to provide the best coach resources, and in the key aspects of talent training, the connection between overseas high-level training platforms and leagues, Shanghai Football Association will play a good bridge role. "But beyond the’ software’, the creation of such an elite team still needs the intervention and guidance of the government, giving necessary hardware support such as venues and policies." Ding Wei said.

　 　 No matter what the result is, as long as we act immediately, it will be of great significance to take precautions at this moment once the flag football successfully enters the Olympics in the near future. Is it really possible for China’s first national flag rugby team to be born in Shanghai and sprint to the Olympic Games?

Editor-in-Chief: Chen Hua

Author: Yao Qinyi

Text Editor: Yao Qinyi