Zhongxin. com, January 1st (He Luman, Dong Hanyang, Liu Danyi, Chen Shuang) Some people call 2021 "the year of deja vu" — — The scenes that have been talked about for a long time but have not happened, such as the breakup between Britain and Europe and Biden coming to power, are about to be staged; Some people call it the "Year of Second Chance", and they are looking for a new opportunity for major events such as the Tokyo Olympic Games, which they regretted missing due to the COVID-19 epidemic.
In the new year, the world still faces many challenges, adversities and new things. We take these "question marks" and knock on the door of 2021.
One size fits all! Brexit makes Britain more free?
When the New Year’s bell rang in 2021, the exhausted and exhausted "the sun never sets" empire finally left the harbor of the European Union and became an independent individual in the Atlantic Ocean again. Looking back nearly half a century ago, it was also a New Year. It was like a dream that Britain celebrated its grand entrance to Europe.
"What we call the beginning is often the end, and declaring the end is also the beginning." Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, quoted Eliot, a famous English poet, to summarize and look forward to the twists and turns of the Brexit story.
Although the relationship between Britain and Europe has turned a new page, the impact of Brexit is far from over. To get rid of the haze of "no agreement to leave the European Union", Britain still faces severe challenges in politics, economy and other aspects.
"There are some remaining problems that seem to have been solved temporarily, such as the Northern Ireland border issue, but these have laid the groundwork for future contradictions (between Britain and Europe). Although a trade agreement has been signed to avoid hard Brexit, their contradictions are still there. " Isabella Chow, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.
In addition, it is still an unsolved proposition how Britain can fulfill the government’s original idea of "globalized Britain" with the rise of domestic populist forces. Isabella Chow said that for Britain, Brexit is "partial interests deprived of the long-term interests of liberalism", especially the concern of the elderly group outweighed the concern of the youth group — — Their dream is to return to the "British Empire", from Britain in the European Union to "Britain in the world". However, because of the obvious trend of regionalization, it is not easy to achieve it.
In any case, the closing chapter of the "Brexit Drama" stayed in the previous year. But Covid-19, a more contagious mutation, had to make time for Britain to focus on managing large-scale vaccination in the following time. As the Financial Times said, "The British government has readjusted its relationship with the country’s largest trading partner, opening a new chapter in British history after 47 years in Europe. Now, Britain must adjust itself. "
The two countries are "broken", can the DPRK and the ROK still make up?
Different from Britain and the European Union, the bilateral relations between North Korea and South Korea, which are located on the Korean peninsula, have been deadlocked since the breakdown of negotiations between the DPRK and the United States in Hanoi. In 2020, North Korea blew up the inter-Korean liaison office and other negative factors, which caused inter-Korean relations to fall to freezing point and the peace process was difficult. How will the situation on the Korean Peninsula change in the new year?
"Internal cause is the basis of change, and external cause is the condition of change." Wang Sheng, an expert on Korean and Korean issues and a professor of international politics at the School of Administration of Jilin University, believes that for North Korea and South Korea, easing relations between the two countries in 2021 is an objective appeal of both sides. However, at present, due to the autonomy of the Korean state, including the wartime command, the issue of sharing the defense expenses between South Korea and the United States remains to be negotiated, and it cannot be completely separated from the framework of the Korea-US alliance in diplomacy, and it will be fettered or restricted when developing the DPRK-ROK relations. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the bottleneck.
Under this circumstance, how the DPRK-ROK relations develop depends on what kind of policy the new administration of US President-elect Biden will implement towards the DPRK after taking office. In this regard, the DPRK is currently in a wait-and-see state.
Wang Sheng pointed out that March 2021 was a key node for the Korean Peninsula. At that time, whether South Korea and the United States will restart large-scale military exercises will have a great impact on North Korea’s attitude.
Wang Sheng emphasized that in any case, the DPRK and the ROK should proceed from objective reality and seek a breakthrough in actively promoting the development of bilateral relations.
Three steps, the space journey will be competitive again.
The relationship between countries may be trapped in some constraints and cannot make progress, but the pace of human exploration will not be stagnant because of technical restrictions.
The first discovery of oxygen outside the Milky Way, the first revelation of the underground structure behind the moon, the drawing of the largest three-dimensional map of the universe to date, and the discovery of a medium-mass black hole … … In 2020, in the unremitting exploration of outer space, mankind opened the door to a new world. When the new year begins, where will the human journey into space go?
Shortly after the launch of China’s "Chang ‘e V", India announced that its lunar probe "Yuechuan 3" would be launched in early 2021. Russia, a traditional space power, also plans to send three new probes to the moon by 2025. Among them, the "Moon 25" detector will be launched in October 2021. In the next few years, the manned moon landing in the United States and the lunar exploration plans of Israel, Japan and other countries have also attracted much attention.
In 2021, human race to the track of Mars became more and more busy. Besides China’s Tianwen-1 probe will arrive on Mars in February, the United Arab Emirates’ Hope and the United States’ Perseverance will also try to land. The Russian-European Mars exploration cooperation project was postponed until 2022.
On the other hand, a month ago, SpaceX’s "Dragon" spacecraft successfully docked with the International Space Station, opening the American commercial space era. At present, American companies have announced that they will send tourists to the International Space Station in 2021 with the help of the "Dragon" spacecraft.
From "going to the moon" to "exploring fire" and then to "roaming in space" by ordinary people, human space exploration has taken three major steps and gone further and further … …
After four consecutive terms, is it difficult for Merkel to leave the EU?
In 2021, German "Iron Lady" Merkel will step down as prime minister and bid farewell to politics.
After 16 years in power, discipline and patience are the biggest labels of this "super-long standby prime minister". Under the leadership of Merkel, Germany has successfully weathered the European debt crisis, and its economy is booming, becoming the real leader of the European Union. When the COVID-19 epidemic struck, Merkel also actively responded with a scientific attitude, advocated cooperation, and made great efforts to achieve the EU recovery fund, and the poll support rate was always high.
The departure of such a "political evergreen" will bring a series of problems to Germany and the European Union.
On the one hand, "the candidate for Germany’s next prime minister is still confusing." Yan Jin, executive director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, said that it is still unknown whether the German political situation will be as stable as it was in the past 16 years.
On the other hand, Merkel has always been regarded as an indispensable "helm" of the European Union. Without her leadership, it would be even more difficult for the EU to complete the post-epidemic economic recovery and the reconstruction of unity. Yan Jin pointed out, "But what is certain is that no matter whether Merkel’s successor is strong or weak, the pattern of German-French cooperation leading the EU will not change for the time being."
Five rings dream! Can the Tokyo Olympics be held?
Merkel’s withdrawal from politics is a pity for Germany and the European Union. However, the failure to hold the Tokyo Olympic Games as scheduled has become Japan’s regret. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the summer of 2020, which should have been "fiery", passed quietly. Next year, whether more than 11,000 athletes can gather in Tokyo as scheduled to participate in the grand event is still in suspense.
The Quiet Olympic Games with Masks will remain the most important event in 2021 — — Agence France-Presse said in an article on this topic that the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee and the Japanese government are trying to cope with the increasing costs and are hesitant about whether to allow foreign tourists to visit and what measures to take for the audience and participants.
Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the Foreign Affairs University, said that if the Olympic Games can be held successfully, it will realize a small rebound of Japan’s economy on the basis of deep recession, which will "add points" to the Suga Yoshihide government and enhance Japan’s international status. But at present, the epidemic has become the primary test of the Japanese government, and people are concerned about whether the Olympic Games can be held under safe conditions.
Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide has promised the world that the Tokyo Olympic Games will be held safely and become a "symbol of human victory over the epidemic". "You are watching the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics in 2021." In July this year, people are looking forward to the appearance of this commentary.
Six challenges, how much has Biden changed since he took office?
In addition to the highly anticipated Olympic Games, on January 20, 2021, US President-elect Biden will be sworn in, and the United States will officially usher in the Biden era.
Biden, 78, said that he entered a new era with great hope. However, he will face six thorny issues: epidemic situation, economy, ethnic contradictions, political polarization, international cooperation and diplomacy. In the past year, the COVID-19 epidemic widened the gap between the rich and the poor, ethnic conflicts intensified social differences, and the United States was "extremely divided".
Distinguished professor of China Ocean University and Zhong-Ying Pang, president of Ocean Development Research Institute, pointed out that ending the COVID-19 epidemic will be the top priority of Biden’s government. Biden has announced the three major 100-day anti-epidemic plans after taking office and vowed to lead the United States through the "dark winter." However, it remains to be seen whether Biden can use the right medicine to make it recover quickly for the American economy hit hard by the epidemic.
In addition, the problem of political polarization in the United States is deepening day by day, and how to promote the cooperation between the two parties has become a necessary question for the next administration. From Biden’s personal point of view, how can he improve his support rate and prepare for the next four years?
Domestic challenges are constant, and there are also many diplomatic problems. In recent years, the Trump administration has shouted the priority of the United States and arbitrarily retired from the "group." Although Biden made it clear that he would strengthen international cooperation, Zhong-Ying Pang believed that it would not be so easy for the United States to return to some international organizations or agreements. On the other hand, how to deal with relations with Iran, Russia and Europe also requires political wisdom.
Seven parties get together? The chaos in the Middle East remains to be solved
In 2020, two assassinations brought the relationship between the United States and Iran to a freezing point, and also brought the shadow of conflict over the Middle East again. On the first anniversary of the death of Iranian general Soleimani by an American air strike, the United States and Iran are still facing each other nervously.
Li Weijian, vice president of the Middle East Institute in China, said that if Biden can regain the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" of the Obama era, shrink the presence of the United States in the Middle East, and sign the seven countries in the Iranian nuclear deal, he may be reunited at the negotiating table. The explosive tension between the United States and Iran will be greatly eased.
However, the above changes may also encounter considerable resistance. First of all, after the withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East, the chances of uncontrolled forces and chaos in the region have increased. Secondly, the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists shows that the Trump administration and its Middle East allies are constantly strengthening their current policies toward Iraq, which makes it more difficult for Biden to implement the New Deal.
In addition, Li Weijian believes that "in 2021, for the Middle East, the greater systemic risk comes from inside rather than outside."
Affected by the epidemic, the international demand for energy has decreased and oil prices have plummeted, which will bring great difficulties to the economic and social operation of many countries in the Middle East. How to carry out economic recovery while fighting the epidemic has become a problem that Middle East countries must deal with. Therefore, "more countries in the region will devote their energy to domestic reform and development."
Since August 2020, Israel has normalized relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, which may be the result of Arab countries proceeding from national interests.
Li Weijian believes that in recent years, the Arab countries are divided internally, and the "nativism" based on national interests has gradually surpassed the "pan-Arabism". After the COVID-19 epidemic, Arab countries encountered difficulties in economic and social aspects, and were more willing to improve relations with foreign countries and obtain tangible benefits such as cooperation and assistance; Israel has always wanted to break the situation of Arab countries holding a group, and naturally it is happy to see it. In the future, the trend of improving Arab-Israeli relations is remarkable.
However, this does not mean that Arab countries will completely turn to Israel. Many countries, including Saudi Arabia, still take a cautious wait-and-see attitude, from historical burdens such as the Palestinian-Israeli issue to the impact of American policy uncertainty. Therefore, in 2021, the Middle East will still be in a state of stalemate and seesaw by many forces.
80 million! Will the COVID-19 epidemic be better?
In the past year, the COVID-19 epidemic has penetrated into everyone’s life, and the lost lives and tears have become indelible memories. Nowadays, many new vaccines have come out one after another, bringing new hope to the new year.
The First Vaccinator in America — — Nurse Lindsay said, "I feel that the cure is coming"; British Prime Minister Johnson said that the vaccine program "gave a far-reaching shot in the arm of the whole UK"; After vaccination, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "This is a small vaccination for individuals, but it is a big step for all of us to be healthy" … …
In 2021, can we really begin to dream of the end of the COVID-19 epidemic, as WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said?
"The most difficult period is gradually passing, but it is not entirely optimistic," said Yan Jin, executive director of the Center for European Studies of Renmin University of China. The vaccine has just been listed, and its production scale and quantity can’t meet everyone’s needs at once. The effectiveness of the vaccine itself needs to be constantly tested and revised. Mutant viruses in many countries have brought new challenges to vaccines.
With the number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 exceeding 80 million, vaccine production should not only seize the opportunity with the disease, but also secretly compete with "vaccine nationalism" on the issue of distribution. In the British "Economist" magazine’s "Global Trends in 2021" forecast, "vaccine battle" ranks first in the most noteworthy event.
Under the epidemic, no one can be immune. UN Secretary-General Guterres said that the future of mankind depends on unity and cooperation, and he called for the elimination of inequality through a "new social contract" and a "global New Deal". Only in this way can human beings meet the time of shaking hands and hugging with confidence as soon as possible.
